Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Atlanta Falcons 26

(10:55) 39-M.Haack punts 51 yards to ATL 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at ATL 33 for 8 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.07 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model