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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 18-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 49, RECOVERED by ARI-56-D.Robinson at ARI 47.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.52 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model