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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model