Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- ARI offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- IND defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
ARI
IND
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:06 TD IND (11:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – IND 6
- Q1 01:45 TD ARI (1:45) 71-J.Gaines and 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – IND 7
- Q2 07:56 TD IND (7:56) 17-D.Jones scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – IND 13
- Q2 01:59 FG ARI (1:59) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell. ARI 10 – IND 14
- Q3 08:43 TD ARI (8:43) 68-K.Beachum and 71-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – IND 14
- Q3 04:36 FG IND (4:36) 12-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ARI 17 – IND 17
- Q3 01:28 TD ARI (1:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-20-Z.Knight was injured during the play. Penalty on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, declined. ARI 23 – IND 17
- Q4 13:17 TD IND (13:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 1-J.Downs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-Z.Collins]. ARI 24 – IND 23
- Q4 09:36 FG ARI (9:36) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell. ARI 27 – IND 24
- Q4 04:35 TD IND (4:35) 28-J.Taylor left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – IND 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 51%
(10:13) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to IND 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
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Q1 IND 4th & 11 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ARI 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 44 for 12 yards (55-C.Muma).
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Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 59%
(:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:12) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to IND 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 6-A.Gould to IND 45 for -2 yards (36-K.Crawford). PENALTY on IND-38-C.Lammons, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at IND 47.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%
(1:59) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.
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Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%
(4:36) 12-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%
(9:36) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 9 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].