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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.02 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model