Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.96 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model