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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 85

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ARI 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 44 for 12 yards (55-C.Muma).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model