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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.30 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP