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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 12-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model