Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to LA: Cooper Rush (BAL) -0.099 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.184 EPA/dropback
- LA offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- BAL defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- LA on 3 more days rest than BAL
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
LA
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:26 FG BAL (7:26) 33-T.Loop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. LA 0 – BAL 3
- Q2 09:53 FG LA (9:53) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – BAL 3
- Q3 11:55 TD LA (11:55) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – BAL 3
- Q3 10:25 TD LA (10:25) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – BAL 3
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%
(7:26) 33-T.Loop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(2:27) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 67%
(14:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers [0-B.Young].
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Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%
(9:53) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 19%
(5:10) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-2-J.McCollough, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.
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Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(3:38) 42-E.Evans punts 55 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-L.Wester pushed ob at LA 32 for 35 yards (42-E.Evans).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(:12) 67-C.Bullock reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to LA 3 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).
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Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 69%
(12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 23-K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
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Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(13:33) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 11 for -5 yards (sack split by 40-T.Buchanan and 32-T.Simpson).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 23%
(8:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to LA 32 for 19 yards (26-K.Kinchens).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 15 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(3:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [0-B.Young].
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Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 81 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 73 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to BAL 38 for 11 yards (3-K.Curl).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 58 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins [8-J.Verse].