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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP