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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 15

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [0-B.Young].

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model