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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 23-K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.88 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model