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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 88

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 42-E.Evans punts 55 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-L.Wester pushed ob at LA 32 for 35 yards (42-E.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 88, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model