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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to BAL 38 for 11 yards (3-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -1.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model