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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins [8-J.Verse].

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -0.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model