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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers [0-B.Young].

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.88 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model