SEA @ JAX — 4th & Data

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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald

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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen

Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

SEA

42.9%

JAX

57.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

SEA offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
JAX defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
JAX offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23

–

JAX 24

Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SEA

Josh Jones T Out Ankle

Derick Hall LB Out Oblique

Julian Love S Doubtful Hamstring

Riq Woolen CB Doubtful Concussion

Devon Witherspoon CB Doubtful Knee

JAX

Robert Hainsey C Doubtful Hamstring

Yasir Abdullah LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 20

–

JAX 12

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 01:21 TD JAX (1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – JAX 6
Q2 10:40 FG SEA (10:40) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – JAX 6
Q2 08:42 TD SEA (8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – JAX 6
Q2 00:15 FG SEA (:15) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 13 – JAX 6
Q3 10:19 TD SEA (10:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – JAX 6
Q4 13:08 TD JAX (13:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 17-T.Patrick for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – JAX 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(11:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 13.
Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(7:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(5:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to JAX 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington to JAX 34 for 10 yards (44-C.Surratt; 28-N.Pritchett). PENALTY on SEA-38-B.Russell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 34.
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

(10:40) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 96

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-T.Horton to SEA 39 for no gain (47-D.Gardeck; 46-R.Matiscik).
Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

(6:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(5:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to JAX 22, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 31

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 77%

(2:00) 5-D.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (24-S.Griffin).
Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 75%

(1:03) 39-C.Little 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 69%

(:15) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(7:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 19 for 6 yards (95-B.Green).
Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(5:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to JAX 27, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 33 for 6 yards (48-T.Knight). PENALTY on JAX-25-R.Lane, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 33.
Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 49

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%

(:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 84-H.Long to SEA 38 for 11 yards (42-D.Thomas; 8-C.Bryant) [0-D.Lawrence].
Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 79%

(13:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end to SEA 26 for 4 yards (42-D.Thomas).
Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(11:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-81-E.Saubert.
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(9:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(7:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to JAX 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-28-N.Pritchett, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 16.
Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(5:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 79 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(4:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to JAX 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington to JAX 36 for 8 yards (81-E.Saubert).
Q4 JAX 4th & 18 at the 72 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(3:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.