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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-D.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (24-S.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model