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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model