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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model