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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(:15) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.47 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model