Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 96

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-T.Horton to SEA 39 for no gain (47-D.Gardeck; 46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -3.65 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.24 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 96, worth -5.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model