Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to JAX 27, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 33 for 6 yards (48-T.Knight). PENALTY on JAX-25-R.Lane, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.75 EP
66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model