Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to JAX 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-28-N.Pritchett, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model