Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to JAX 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington to JAX 34 for 10 yards (44-C.Surratt; 28-N.Pritchett). PENALTY on SEA-38-B.Russell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.84 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model