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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP