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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NE
61.8%
NO
38.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Spencer Rattler (NO): -0.188 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NE defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 25
–
NO 21
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NE

Anfernee Jennings LB Out Ankle
Jaylinn Hawkins S Out Hamstring
Antonio Gibson RB Out Knee
Keion White DE Out Elbow
Milton Williams DT Questionable Illness
Marte Mapu LB Questionable Neck
Christian Gonzalez CB Questionable Hamstring
Charles Woods CB Questionable Knee

NO

Isaac Yiadom CB Out Hamstring
John Ridgeway DT Out Shoulder
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 25
–
NO 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:54 FG NO (12:54) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 11:03 TD NE (11:03) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – NO 3
  • Q1 05:09 FG NO (5:09) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 7 – NO 6
  • Q1 00:42 TD NE (:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – NO 6
  • Q2 09:47 TD NO (9:47) (Shotgun) 79-L.Fortner reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – NO 12
  • Q2 01:55 FG NO (1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 14 – NO 16
  • Q2 00:38 TD NE (:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. NE 20 – NO 16
  • Q3 07:29 FG NE (7:29) 36-A.Borregales 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 25 – NO 16
  • Q4 13:46 FG NO (13:46) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NE 25 – NO 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (12:54) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (5:09) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 64%

    (5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 71%

    (11:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 8-S.Diggs to NO 22 for 14 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (7:29) 36-A.Borregales 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%

    (4:23) 32-K.Kroeger punts 23 yards to NE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 39 for 12 yards (91-E.Ponder).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (13:46) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 55%

    (5:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:55) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to NE 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 6 yards (44-I.Stalbird).