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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 16 – New England Patriots 25

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 32-K.Kroeger punts 23 yards to NE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model