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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model