Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 19 – New England Patriots 25

(3:55) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to NE 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 6 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.67 EP
61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model