4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 72

New England Patriots 25 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 39 for 12 yards (91-E.Ponder).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model