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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model