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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LAC
45.6%
MIA
54.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.185 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LAC

Da'Shawn Hand DE Out Groin
Trey Pipkins T Out Knee
Derius Davis WR Out Knee
Joe Alt T Out Ankle
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Ankle
Bud Dupree DE Questionable Hamstring
Jamaree Salyer G Questionable Knee
Quentin Johnston WR Questionable Hamstring
Scott Matlock FB Questionable Ankle

MIA

Elijah Campbell S Out Quadricep
Tyrel Dodson LB Out Concussion
Aaron Brewer C Questionable Pectoral
Storm Duck CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 29
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:55 FG LAC (7:55) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – MIA 0
  • Q1 04:11 TD MIA (4:11) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – MIA 6
  • Q1 00:39 FG LAC (:39) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 08:42 FG LAC (8:42) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 9 – MIA 7
  • Q2 04:34 FG MIA (4:34) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. LAC 9 – MIA 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG MIA (:04) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. LAC 9 – MIA 13
  • Q3 07:33 TD LAC (7:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 15 – MIA 13
  • Q3 04:01 TD LAC (4:01) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-K.Vidal for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 22 – MIA 13
  • Q4 12:50 FG LAC (12:50) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 26 – MIA 13
  • Q4 08:02 TD MIA (8:02) 28-D.Achane left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – MIA 19
  • Q4 00:52 TD MIA (:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – MIA 26
  • Q4 00:09 FG LAC (:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 29 – MIA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 33%

    (12:26) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (3-K.Britt).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 94%

    (7:55) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:27) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to LAC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-T.Still to LAC 29 for 11 yards (82-D.Eskridge; 49-J.Cardona).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 96%

    (:39) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 62%

    (12:02) 47-R.Patterson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (8:42) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (4:34) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:48) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to MIA 18, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (:04) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to LAC 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-C.Hart ran ob at LAC 21 for no gain.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 94%

    (12:50) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:30) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to MIA 10, Center-41-R.Lovato. 6-M.Washington to MIA 18 for 8 yards (36-J.Taylor).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.