Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(6:27) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to LAC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-T.Still to LAC 29 for 11 yards (82-D.Eskridge; 49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.65 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model