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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 26 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to MIA 10, Center-41-R.Lovato. 6-M.Washington to MIA 18 for 8 yards (36-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model