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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model