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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CIN
58.8%
CLE
41.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.127 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.122 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
CLE 20
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CIN

Joseph Ossai DE Out Ankle

CLE

Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 3
–
CLE 24

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:19 FG CLE (14:19) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CIN 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:22 TD CLE (:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 9
  • Q3 11:48 FG CIN (11:48) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 3 – CLE 10
  • Q3 02:25 FG CLE (2:25) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CIN 3 – CLE 13
  • Q4 11:33 FG CLE (11:33) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CIN 3 – CLE 16
  • Q4 09:14 TD CLE (9:14) 53-N.Harris and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – CLE 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 32%

    (12:12) 10-B.Robbins punts 35 yards to CLE 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 66 yards to CIN 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 14 for 8 yards (28-M.Ford).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:10) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to CLE 37, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 41 for 4 yards (51-M.Bailey, 27-J.Battle).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:17) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to CLE 37, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 43 for 6 yards (84-M.Wilcox).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (14:19) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:24) 10-B.Robbins punts 37 yards to CLE 44, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CIN 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 60%

    (8:47) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 10 for 1 yard (29-C.Mitchell). PENALTY on CIN-35-J.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (4:12) 10-B.Robbins punts 54 yards to CLE 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to CIN 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:43) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to CLE 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to CIN 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 87%

    (11:48) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%

    (6:57) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (2:25) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (15:00) 10-B.Robbins punts 22 yards to CLE 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%

    (11:33) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 18 for -13 yards (95-M.Garrett).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:48) 10-B.Robbins punts 52 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 23 for 5 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 33 for 15 yards (40-M.Adams). PENALTY on CLE-29-C.Mitchell, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 33.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:48) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:32) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.