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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 66 yards to CIN 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 14 for 8 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model