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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 10-B.Robbins punts 52 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 23 for 5 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model