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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 10-B.Robbins punts 35 yards to CLE 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model