4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to CIN 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model