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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model