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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model