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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 86

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 10-B.Robbins punts 54 yards to CLE 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.35 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 86, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.26 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 44, worth -2.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP