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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model