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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP