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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-B.Robbins punts 22 yards to CLE 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model