Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 33 for 15 yards (40-M.Adams). PENALTY on CLE-29-C.Mitchell, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.24 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model