4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 24

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model